Study Warns of Major Earthquake Risk in North, Northeast India

At Least 11 Indian States Face Risk from Breaking Tectonic Plate

April 28, 2025

A new geological study finds that, contrary to earlier belief, the Indian Plate beneath the Tibetan Plateau is breaking and twisting deep below the surface. The discovery has serious implications for understanding earthquake risks across South and East Asia, including Myanmar, India, Bhutan, Nepal and China.

For many years, it was widely believed that the Indian Plate smoothly slipped beneath Tibet, gradually pushing upwards to form the massive Himalayan mountain range — a movement known as “underplating.” This process was seen as relatively straightforward, with one tectonic plate sliding beneath another without breaking apart.

A “plate” is a giant, solid slab of the Earth’s outer layer (the crust and part of the upper mantle) that slowly moves around over time, a bit like pieces of a cracked eggshell shifting on top of a ball. The Indian Plate is one of these slabs. It covers most of South Asia, including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and part of the Indian Ocean. Millions of years ago, it broke off from a larger landmass and started moving northward, crashing into the Eurasian Plate. This collision created the Himalayas. How the Indian Plate behaves deep underground affects the lives of millions of people living across South and Central Asia.

Using advanced 3D imaging, scientists have made a surprising discovery in the study: the Indian Plate is not just sliding but actually breaking and twisting deep underground, as reported by India Today. This means the way the Indian Plate and the Tibetan Plateau are pushing against each other is much messier than earlier thought, and it changes a lot depending on the area, especially across the 90 degrees east line, or parts of eastern Bhutan, northeastern India (like Arunachal Pradesh and parts of Assam), eastern Tibet, and northern Myanmar.

On the western side of this line (northern India, especially Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand states, western Nepal and western and central parts of the Tibetan Plateau, like Ngari Prefecture near the India-China border and central regions like around Lhasa and Shigatse in Tibet), the Indian Plate largely remains intact and moves consistently beneath the Tibetan Plateau.

In sharp contrast, the eastern side shows the Indian Plate is undergoing a severe internal separation—a process geologists call “delamination.” In delamination, the upper crust of the plate separates from the deeper mantle below it, creating space into which hot, softer material from deep within the Earth (the asthenosphere) pushes upwards. This softer layer, flowing between the separated parts, forms a wedge-shaped structure, dramatically changing the dynamics beneath the surface.

Furthermore, researchers have observed that the eastern Tibetan lithosphere (covering areas like eastern Tibet (around Nyingchi and Qamdo), and stretching toward parts of northern Myanmar and China’s Yunnan province)—the rigid outer shell of the Earth in this area—actually extends about 100 kilometres further south than previously understood. This southward extension of Tibet’s deeper geological layers shows how profoundly tectonic processes can reshape a region.

Knowing that the Indian Plate is tearing apart rather than simply sliding beneath the Himalayas helps explain why earthquakes in these regions can sometimes be extraordinarily powerful and devastating – for example, the 2025 Myanmar earthquake, the 2015 Nepal earthquake, the 2008 Sichuan earthquake in China, and the 2001 Bhuj and 1950 Assam earthquakes in India.

This new knowledge should prompt earthquake preparedness efforts in India, Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan and China, to better account for the potential risks arising from the plate’s fracturing.

The Indian government needs to take several proactive measures to protect lives and infrastructure, especially in the states of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Tripura and West Bengal.

Firstly, it should immediately reassess the earthquake hazard maps used for urban planning and construction guidelines, especially in densely populated Himalayan states and neighbouring regions. Buildings, roads and other infrastructure in these areas must be designed or retrofitted to withstand stronger tremors than previously expected.

Secondly, the government should significantly increase investment in earthquake monitoring technologies and geological research to continuously observe tectonic activity in real-time. Improved monitoring systems can offer earlier and more precise earthquake warnings, crucial for saving lives.

Lastly, public education campaigns about earthquake preparedness should be intensified. People living in potentially high-risk zones must be thoroughly trained in how to respond safely when earthquakes strike, including evacuation plans and emergency response procedures. Regular drills, clear communication strategies and preparedness kits in vulnerable communities are practical steps towards minimising loss of life during future seismic events.

The number of seismic observatories in India has increased from 80 in 2014 to 168 by February 2025. The National Centre for Seismology (NCS) operates a real-time monitoring network, and the BhooKamp app has been launched for real-time earthquake updates, according to government data. Further, the Earthquake Risk Indexing (EDRI) project assesses risks in 50 cities, with plans to cover 16 more. 

However, the expansion of seismic observatories, while significant, may still be insufficient given that roughly 59% of India is prone to earthquakes. The EDRI project’s current coverage leaves many urban areas unassessed, and the effectiveness of the BhooKamp app in providing timely alerts to the general population is unclear. Moreover, the integration of advanced technologies, such as AI-driven earthquake prediction models, appears limited in current government initiatives.