For Most Indians, One Veg and One Non-Veg Meal a Day Is Out of Reach

Study Uses Meal Costs to Measure Real Food Access in India

June 11, 2025

A recent independent study reveals a disconnect between official poverty estimates and the everyday reality of food access for much of the population. The researchers used government data and constructed what they call a “Thali Index,” which suggests that more than half of India’s population cannot afford to eat even one vegetarian and one non-vegetarian meal a day.

Instead of relying on outdated caloric norms or abstract poverty lines, the index uses data from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2022–23 to assess whether people can actually afford two meals a day—one vegetarian and one non-vegetarian thali—at real market prices. A vegetarian thali typically includes roti or rice, dal and vegetables. A non-vegetarian thali adds meat or fish.

The “Thali Index” was created by Pulapre Balakrishnan, a macroeconomist and development specialist, and Aman Raj, a Teaching Fellow in Economics at Krea University. Their findings challenge official claims that extreme poverty in India has nearly disappeared.

They arrived at the price of 30 rupees for a vegetarian thali and 58 rupees for a non-vegetarian thali, drawing from Crisil’s “Roti, Rice Rate” (RRR) data, which is a monthly “food‑plate cost” index that tracks the average cost of preparing a home‑cooked thali—both vegetarian and non‑vegetarian—across all major regions of India.

These prices are on the lower side, especially for states like Rajasthan, Bihar, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, where food costs are often higher, explains the study. Nonetheless, the researchers say they used these conservative estimates to determine how many thalis per day different sections of the population could afford, based on their monthly food expenditure.

In rural India, the bottom 40 percent of the population cannot afford two vegetarian meals a day. When the benchmark is raised to one vegetarian and one non-vegetarian meal, the situation becomes even more severe. Nearly 80 percent of the rural population falls short. In urban areas, the figures are marginally better. Around 10 percent of the urban population cannot afford two vegetarian thalis daily, and 50 percent cannot afford a vegetarian and non-vegetarian meal.

The World Bank raised its international poverty line, also known as the extreme poverty threshold, to $3.00 per person per day in its June 2025 revision, based on updated global price data. This new threshold reflects what $3 could buy in the United States in 2021, adjusted for local prices in each country. And the World Bank said India’s extreme poverty rate fell sharply from 27.1% in 2011–12 to 5.3% over the following decade.

The Thali Index suggests that food deprivation, as measured in the ability to buy daily meals, is prevalent even among those not officially classified as poor.

This gap exists because of a problem in how poverty is usually measured. Poverty lines often assume that once people meet their basic survival needs, they will spend the rest of their money on food. But in real life, people also have to pay for healthcare, transport, school fees and other daily needs. These costs often come before food. As a result, even those who are not officially considered poor may not have enough money left to afford two proper meals a day. That’s what the Thali Index shows.

The study also takes into account food received without payment—through the Public Distribution System (PDS), workplace meals, or help from others. But even after including the value of this support, many people still don’t have enough to eat. In rural areas, those in the bottom 10 percent spend about 35 rupee a day on food. That’s enough for a little more than one vegetarian meal and not even one non-vegetarian meal. In cities, the poorest spend around 45 rupees a day, but that still doesn’t cover the cost of two basic meals.

The problem is not merely about hunger or calorie intake. It is about the quality and quantity of food that people can afford. Calorie-based measures might suggest people are not hungry, but they do not show what kind of food is being consumed.

The study’s message is hard to ignore. Economic growth means little if people still can’t afford enough to eat. Measuring poverty only by income or general needs overlooks this basic fact. Government claims that extreme poverty has nearly vanished don’t hold when compared with the reality these numbers show.

If over half the population can’t afford just one vegetarian and one non-vegetarian meal a day, then the story of poverty in India is far from finished.

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