Why India’s Middle Class Must Rethink the Dream of Office Jobs
Saurabh Mukherjea, CIO of Marcellus Investment Managers, Tells a Media Outlet
April 21, 2025
A financial markets expert has issued a cautionary note to India’s middle class: the stable, salaried white-collar jobs – typically office-based roles or other professional positions that rely more on intellectual input than manual labour – that once defined upward mobility are gradually disappearing.
In a podcast by Mint, titled “Beyond the Paycheck: India’s Entrepreneurial Rebirth,” Saurabh Mukherjea, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marcellus Investment Managers, argues that this decade may mark the end of what many Indians have traditionally aspired to—long-term, secure employment in respectable organisations.
The warning for the middle class is rooted in the rapid transformation brought about by automation and artificial intelligence (AI), which are replacing the need for human labour in areas once thought to be immune to such changes.
As of 2024, about 31% of India’s population is considered middle class, equating to around 432 million people. This group is projected to expand to 38% by 2031 and 60% by 2047. Defining the middle class in India varies, but one of the ways categorises individuals with an annual income between 500,000 (5 lakh) rupees and 3 million (30 lakh) rupees (roughly $6,000 to $36,000) as middle class.
While most Indians in the middle class see white-collar jobs as their goal, these roles are increasingly being taken over by machines, says Mukherjea. A striking example he gives is Google, which now reportedly uses AI to write a third of its code. If a tech giant like Google is leaning on machines to do such crucial work, it’s reasonable to expect Indian IT firms to be following suit.
The Economic Survey 2024–25 highlights that a significant portion of India’s IT workforce is engaged in low-value-added services, making them vulnerable to automation as companies seek cost reductions by substituting labour with technology.
Further, estimates suggest that automation could lead to the displacement of a substantial number of jobs in India’s formal employment sector by 2030. Specifically, 69% of jobs in formal employment are at risk of automation, with 640,000 low-skilled service jobs in the IT sector potentially being automated, according to a paper published by Centre for the Advanced Study of India.
Even if only a quarter of IT staff in India lose jobs due to AI, it could result in a roughly $7 billion drop in the country's total household income, affecting consumer demand and economic stability, according to Global Indian Times.
A McKinsey Global Institute report projects that by 2030, automation could displace between 400 and 800 million jobs worldwide, requiring up to 375 million workers (14% of the global workforce) to change occupations.
The trend is not limited to technology alone; industries like media and financial services, which also rely heavily on computer-based tasks, are being transformed in similar ways.
Mukherjea also challenges the long-held notion of employment security.
Previous generations might have worked for one company for decades, gradually climbing the ranks and earning promotions along the way. This model helped create a large Indian middle class, supported by regular income and long-term job stability. But he argues that this structure no longer holds.
Mid-level positions, which were once the backbone of professional careers, are now most at risk. Automation does not just replace entry-level tasks—it is increasingly creeping into roles that require decision-making and experience.
A 2024 analysis by The Waves suggests that automation is disproportionately affecting the “middle layer” of the workforce. This includes college-educated professionals in roles such as operations, administration and mid-tier finance. These positions often involve routine cognitive tasks, which are now being automated, leading to a “hollowing out” of the job market’s middle segment. In contrast, both high-skilled roles requiring creativity and low-skilled service jobs remain more resilient.
Yet, Mukherjea’s message is not entirely bleak.
Mukherjea believes that as traditional employment structures fade, new doors are opening—particularly through entrepreneurship. He highlights a shift already underway in India: more people are choosing to start their own ventures rather than depending on corporate jobs. According to him, this is not merely a backup option but could become the main path to financial security and purpose in the years ahead.
As of January 2025, India has officially recognised over 159,000 startups, a significant increase from around 500 in 2016, according to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry. These startups have collectively created more than 1.6 million direct jobs, as reported by The Economic Times.
However, making that leap will also require a change in mindset. Pointing to a deep-rooted cultural obsession in India with job security and stable monthly income, Mukherjea says the thinking that paychecks is a measure to judge success is outdated and needs to evolve. Instead of chasing salaries, people should begin valuing work that brings happiness and has a meaningful impact on others.
He concludes with a blunt warning for parents and families: the future will not be built on job applications. Instead of preparing children to become employees, families must start preparing them to be creators, innovators and business owners.
