Delayed Census Denies Food Security to 120 Million Indians

IndiaSpend Links Outdated Census to Massive Ration Exclusions

May 5, 2025

The delay in population Census has left over 120 million people without access to subsidised foodgrain under the National Food Security Act (NFSA). The shortfall, attributed to outdated beneficiary data from the 2011 Census, is pushing millions towards food insecurity, despite the government continuing to operate one of the world’s largest food distribution programmes.

The NFSA mandates coverage of 75% of the rural and up to 50% of the urban population, based on the “latest” Census figures. However, with the last Census conducted in 2011 and the next not expected before 2026, the government is distributing foodgrain to 806 million people—a figure 8.1 million lower than its own estimates and nearly 120 million short of what current population projections demand, according to an analysis by Shreehari Paliath for IndiaSpend.

The objective of NFSA, enacted in 2013, is to ensure access to adequate quantities of food at affordable prices, thereby advancing food security as a matter of legal right.

Economist Jean Drèze has noted that over 920 million individuals would need to be covered through the Public Distribution System (PDS) under NFSA in 2025 to meet the mandated proportions, based on updated population data.

The Census, originally scheduled for 2021, was deferred due to the COVID-19 pandemic and has since seen no formal announcement of a new date. In April 2025, the government said it would include caste enumeration in the exercise but gave no timeline for when it would be held, the analysis notes.

Further, the Union budget for Census and statistical operations has been halved in 2025, indicating further delays.

The government’s own response in Parliament confirmed that any revision in NFSA coverage would be possible only once new Census data is published.

While the Union government announced the extension of free foodgrain under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana from January 2024 for a period of five years, this shift from subsidised to free distribution has reduced the allocation to priority households by half. In 2023-24, the government released over 8,700 crore rupees to states for PDS operations, and it has allocated 2.03 lakh crore rupees for 2025—1% less than the previous year.

Despite extensive coverage, 14% of India’s population—or 194 million people—were undernourished between 2021 and 2023, according to the 2024 UN report “State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World.”

The PDS remains a crucial mechanism for preventing hunger. A 2024 study by researchers Aditya Shrinivas, Kathy Baylis and Benjamin Crost found that the expansion of NFSA coverage through PDS prevented 1.8 million children under five from becoming stunted. The study also found that the savings from cheaper foodgrain led to improved dietary diversity, particularly in protein consumption.

The National Family Health Survey 2019–21 showed that more than a third of children under five in India were stunted. Stunting, which refers to a child being short for their age, is linked with reduced cognitive development, lower productivity in adulthood, fewer years of education, and lower earnings. It also increases the risk of chronic diseases in later life.

Studies cited by IndiaSpend show that adults who were stunted as children earn 20% less than their non-stunted peers and are more likely to remain in poverty. A 1% loss in adult height due to childhood stunting corresponds to a 1.4% loss in economic productivity, according to the World Bank.

Although the One Nation One Ration Card initiative aims to allow ration access across states, especially for migrants, uptake has remained limited outside of Delhi.

Six other government datasets have also been delayed, and nine Union ministries have not published their annual reports in years, further affecting the reliability of welfare planning. As of December 2024, the estimated number of people excluded from PDS had risen from 100 million in 2020 to over 120 million. Changes in urban-rural demographics since the last Census—including those caused by demonetisation and the pandemic—remain unaccounted for, the analysis pointed out.

The Global Hunger Index ranked India 105 out of 127 countries in 2024, a modest improvement from its 2023 position of 111 out of 125. While the government has rejected the index’s methodology in Parliament over the years, it can’t be denied that “starvation is the characteristic of some people not having enough food to eat” and “not the characteristic of there not being enough food to eat,” as economist Amartya Sen wrote in his 1981 book, “Poverty & Famines: An Essay on Entitlement & Deprivation.”

The exclusion of millions from food security carries consequences also for the nation’s development, economy and social stability. When people are denied access to adequate nutrition, it hampers physical and cognitive growth, reduces productivity and limits educational outcomes, all of which erode the country’s human capital.

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