Question Marks Over Withdrawal of Assam Rifles in Manipur
The Decision Appears to Ignore the Current Ethnic, Political and Security Landscape
Newsreel Asia Insight #303
August 7, 2024
This image is for representational purposes only and does not depict the specific location discussed in the article.
The central government has reportedly directed two battalions of the Assam Rifles in the northeastern state of Manipur to relocate to the Jammu and Kashmir region for operations against militants. While it’s entirely within the rights of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs to make such decisions, the ethnic, political and security landscape in Manipur, coupled with the timing of this move, raises three significant questions.
Before we pose the three questions, let’s first consider the context, as understood by Newsreel Asia based on interactions with local people and the security establishment during more than a dozen trips to the state since the violence began in May 2023.
Ethnic Situation
For over 15 months—more than 450 days—there has been ongoing violence between the majority Meitei community in the Imphal valley and the hill-dwelling Kuki-Zo tribes, centered on identity and land disputes. It has resulted in at least 200 deaths according to conservative estimates, the destruction of thousands of homes and about 60,000 people being displaced. The tensions have led to nearly complete ethnic segregation, with no Kuki-Zo families remaining in the valley area and no Meiteis in any Kuki-dominated hill regions.
According to tribal groups, 191 of the fatalities are from the Kuki-Zo community. Although Meitei civilians have also been affected, neither Meitei groups nor the state government have released figures on the number of Meiteis killed or injured. It’s difficult to understand why these figures haven’t been released.
Central paramilitary forces, including the Assam Rifles, and the Indian Army have been deployed in Manipur since about three days after the violence erupted on May 3, 2023. Their presence has been met with criticism from some Meitei civil society organisations and extremist groups, and initially, even sections of the Manipur Police were critical. These security personnel were perceived as hindering extremist groups attempting to enter or attack Kuki-Zo villages. Consequently, the Assam Rifles faced allegations, albeit without evidence, that they favour the Kuki-Zo tribes and allow refugees.
The allegations against the Assam Rifles could also stem from their crackdown on smuggling, as explained in a recent Newsreel Asia Perspective.
Further, an internal report by the Assam Rifles, a leaked copy of which came out in the media, blamed the violence on the “political authoritarianism and ambition” of Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh. This may have ruffled feathers within the Meitei-dominant state administration.
Political Context
The state government in Manipur is headed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which also controls the central government. The apparent failure of Manipur’s chief minister, a Meitei, to halt the violence has sparked demands for his removal. It’s difficult to understand why these calls have gone unheeded.
Singh is reportedly unpopular among the MLAs from his own party within the Assembly, and he has been politically insecure since before the outbreak of violence. On April 21, 2023, less than two weeks before the outbreak of violence, a headline in The Print read: “As calls grow for ‘leadership change,’ why Manipur CM Biren Singh is facing fresh dissent from BJP MLAs.”
Further, he doesn't seem to be popular among the Meitei population either. In the recently concluded national elections, the BJP lost in both of Manipur’s Lok Sabha constituencies. One of these constituencies has an overwhelmingly Meitei population.
More recently, on Aug. 3, 2024, The Hindu quoted a BJP MLA from the valley, a Meitei, who spoke on condition of anonymity. He warned that if the central government does not act swiftly to stop the violence, about 20 legislators–of the 37 BJP MLAs– might be compelled to resign from the party. “Except lip service from the Home Minister or the Prime Minister, nothing has changed,” the MLA said.
Security Issues
Manipur, one of the states affected by insurgency, has faced unrest since its incorporation into India in 1949. The insurgency, primarily driven by sections of the Meitei community, reached its peak during the 1980s and 1990s. This led to the deployment of the army and central armed forces, and the enforcement of the controversial Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA). The strict security measures implemented subsequently forced many insurgent groups to establish bases in neighbouring Myanmar. Over time, other insurgent groups gradually lost both popular support and relevance.
AFSPA is still in effect, but only in the hill areas, where there is no insurgency. There are armed groups among the Kuki-Zo, who have been demanding a separate state within the Union of India. However, these groups have signed “Suspension of Operation” pacts with the central government.
Amid the ongoing violence, insurgency has resurfaced in Manipur. According to the August 3, 2024, report by The Hindu, BJP MLAs in Manipur have stated that the central government’s indecisiveness in resolving the ethnic conflict has reignited insurgency in the state. This resurgence has seen banned groups engaging in extortion rings and arms smuggling rackets.
It’s difficult to understand why AFSPA is not in effect in the valley regions, despite the clear presence of insurgent groups.
3 Questions
Against this backdrop of ethnic, political and security contexts, the central government’s decision to relocate two Assam Rifles battalions raises the following three questions:
The first question is: If there’s a need for more Assam Rifles troops in Jammu, why move two battalions from Manipur?
Of the 46 Assam Rifles battalions, 20 are reportedly tasked with guarding the India-Myanmar border, while the majority of the remaining battalions are engaged in counter-insurgency roles, including two already stationed in Jammu and Kashmir.
Given this distribution, the decision to move two battalions from Manipur raises questions. There are battalions in other northeastern states such as Mizoram, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Tripura. Logically, the government would likely reassign a battalion from a state with the least security threat or insurgency risk. Does Manipur fit this description?
The second question concerns the central government’s specific choices: Why has it pinpointed the 9th and 22nd battalions, of the over a dozen battalions in Manipur, for reassignment?
The 9th battalion is currently deployed in the Kanvai-Gothol area, which serves as a “buffer zone” between the Kuki-Zo dominant Churachandpur district and the Meitei-inhabited district of Bishnupur. The 22nd battalion is positioned around the Kangpokpi district, which has a majority Kuki-Zo population and borders the Imphal valley near the Gamgiphai area. A significant majority of the Kuki-Zo population in Manipur resides in the Churachandpur and Kangpokpi districts. All the relief camps for the displaced tribal people are also located in these two districts.
Applying the legal concept of “balance of harms” amid the ongoing conflict reveals significant concerns. Almost the entire Kuki-Zo tribal population is apprehensive about the impending withdrawal of the Assam Rifles from their regions, fearing for their safety. Conversely, sections of the Meitei community view the potential reassignment of these battalions as a cause for celebration, hailing it as their “first major victory” on social media.
In a memo to the Union Home Minister on Aug. 4, 2024, the Churachandpur-based group, Indigenous Tribal Leaders Forum (ITLF), pointed out that in August 2023, Assam Rifles personnel prevented Meitei police commandos in Bishnupur from crossing the “military buffer zone” into Churachandpur to allegedly attack Kuki-Zo villages, “helping to prevent a bloodbath.”
The ITLF also said that the removal of the Assam Rifles battalions “will greatly increase the risk of violence flaring up again in Manipur.”
Rumours have circulated since last year that the Assam Rifles might be removed due to demands from Meitei groups. The timing of the decision, coming just days after the chief minister reportedly met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on July 28—the first meeting since the outbreak of violence—does little to quell speculation.
Speculation also suggests that Modi may have informed the chief minister that he might need to resign, as noted by The Wire.
The third question is: If two battalions are to be reassigned from an extremely sensitive area, why should only the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) be tasked with replacing them?
The Assam Rifles has been stationed in Manipur for decades, gaining an intimate knowledge of the terrain, local sensitivities, leaders and communities. The force is known for adhering an Army culture, which is generally considered above religious and political ideologies. Importantly, the Assam Rifles includes personnel from the three main communities in Manipur – Meitei, Kuki-Zo and Naga – which forces them to have a balanced approach to the complex local dynamics.
While the professionalism of the CRPF is unquestionable, it may not be able to bridge the gap created by the removal of the Assam Rifles. So, why is the Army not being asked to replace the Assam Rifles in the affected regions?
Given this context, many are suspecting that the decision to move two battalions out of Manipur might be influenced more by political considerations than by a purely security-driven strategy. Even if that’s not entirely the case, the perception alone sets a troubling precedent for managing ongoing and future conflicts in India. Therefore, it’s important to address and alleviate these perceptions.
