Former Congress Leader Predicts Victory for Opposition’s ‘INDIA’ Bloc

‘We Are Seeing a Repeat of 2004’

Newsreel Asia Insight #206
April 29, 2024

Sanjay Jha, a former Congress leader and party spokesperson, wrote a post on social media outlining his belief that the Opposition’s INDIA –  Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance – stands poised for victory in the ongoing 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Drawing parallels to the historic 2004 general polls, Jha presented “11 reasons” to support his assertion, suggesting a potential shift in momentum favouring the opposition.

Jha predicted a potential peak for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at 210-215 Lok Sabha seats out of the total 543, suggesting a possible dip below the 200-seat mark, as reported by Mint. Expressing confidence in the INDIA alliance, he drew attention to Uttar Pradesh as a critical battleground, foreseeing a decisive impact on the electoral outcome nationwide.

Contrary to Jha’s projections, the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi claim they will get a resounding victory with an ambitious target of 400 seats for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Citing key observations following the second phase of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024, Jha explained the rationale behind his conviction in the INDIA bloc’s potential triumph. He referred to widespread disillusionment with political rhetoric and a perceived fatigue factor associated with Prime Minister Modi’s leadership, citing “lies, spin-doctoring and subpar propaganda.”

Central to Jha’s argument is the notion of a shifting electoral paradigm, characterised by the departure of the “floating voter” from the BJP camp due to feelings of betrayal and unmet expectations – governance, development and job creation. This pivotal demographic, accounting for a significant proportion of the electorate, emerges as a decisive factor shaping electoral outcomes, challenging conventional notions of electoral predictability.

“The floating voter determines elections everywhere; but in India that is the biggest chunk at around 50-60%, unlike the US/UK where the voting patterns are more predictable. Both BJP and Congress stabilise at around a core vote-bank of 20% each,” he wrote.

In the preceding national election in 2019, the BJP secured 37% of the votes, leaving 63% of the electorate unaligned with the party. Consequently, the emergence of the INDIA alliance, symbolising a formidable coalition, presents a substantial challenge to the BJP’s prospects of securing a third consecutive term. Factors such as anti-incumbency sentiments, compounded by prevailing economic challenges, allegations of misuse of regulatory bodies like the Enforcement Directorate, and the contentious issue of electoral bonds, are likely to have swayed “floating” or undecided voters away from the party.

In assessing the potential ramifications of shifting voter sentiments, Jha anticipates a notable decline in the BJP’s vote share, potentially offset by gains in select constituencies or a concentration of support in traditional strongholds.

“We are seeing a repeat of 2004,” he wrote, listing reasons, including “anti-Muslim/minorities polarisation of Modi, …arrogance of power, …strategic blunder in throttling Congress bank accounts, arresting Arvind Kejriwal and threatening opposition.”