Farmer Protests May Hurt BJP Despite Little Media Attention

Electoral Significance of Rural Voters Cannot be Underestimated

Newsreel Asia Insight #222
May 15, 2024

The grievances of the farmers, expressed through their “Dilli Chalo (Let’s go to Delhi)” movement and ongoing protests, reflect deep-rooted issues in the agricultural sector that have significant implications for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the ongoing elections. Though out of sight for many news readers, these protests are a manifestation of widespread discontent among the rural electorate, which forms a substantial portion of the voter base in northern states such as Punjab and Haryana.

The 2024 protests began in February when farmers, equipped with bedding and food, sought to journey toward Delhi in trucks and tractors. However, they were stopped about 200 kilometres from the capital by security forces using tear gas and water cannons, leading them to set up camp there. These demonstrations mark a resurgence of the agricultural unrest that was prominently seen during the significant 2020 protests.

These protests are primarily concentrated in Punjab and Haryana, where a large segment of the population is engaged in farming. The movement was triggered by the farmers’ demands for a legal guarantee of Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for their crops, more comprehensive governmental support, and the fulfilment of previous promises made by the government, including debt waivers and increased income guarantees. The opposition is now also rooted in the alleged involvement of a Union minister’s son in a fatal incident during the 2021 protests. His SUV ran over four farmers and a journalist in the Lakhimpur Kheri area in October that year. 

Farmers’ frustrations have escalated due to perceived governmental inaction on these issues, leading to widespread protests affecting political campaigns and causing disruptions in these states.

These protests are directly impacting BJP’s election campaign in these regions. The general election is scheduled for May 25 in Haryana for 10 seats, and June 1 in Punjab for 13 seats.

There have been multiple instances where farmers have prevented BJP candidates from entering villages, displaying black flags and vocalising their dissent, as reported by The Indian Express and The Tribune. The denial of entry to BJP candidates into villages, as seen in Punjab and Haryana, points to a potent symbolic rejection of the party by a critical voter segment.

Some party leaders like Manohar Lal Khattar have argued that the protests could paradoxically increase support for the BJP, but this view seems overly optimistic given the defection of several key political figures from the BJP to the Congress, citing concerns for farmers’ issues. This shift indicates a potential erosion of support within the party’s own ranks, influenced by the agricultural community’s struggles.

Moreover, the electoral significance of rural voters cannot be overstated. According to the 2011 Census, a significant majority of Punjab’s population resides in rural areas. Historical election data from the state reflects that rural discontent has previously led to poor electoral performance for the BJP, notably in the 2022 Assembly polls where their vote share dropped following the farm agitation.

Furthermore, the government’s alleged heavy-handed measures, such as the use of tear gas and water cannons against protesters, and the slow progress on previously made promises, have only fuelled the discontent.