2024 Election Analysis: BJP’s Declining Influence Despite Stable Vote Share

The Party’s Vote Share Came Down From 37.36% in 2019 to 36.56% in 2024

Newsreel Asia Insight #247
June 10, 2024

Some pollsters are attempting to minimise the apparent decline of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 Lok Sabha election results by drawing attention to the party’s vote share, which has decreased by only 0.7% compared to the 2019 election results. However, despite their expertise as psephologists, they are overlooking the fact that gauging a political party’s popularity and success solely by its overall vote share in a first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system can indeed be simplistic and misleading.

Firstly, in the FPTP system, what ultimately counts is the number of seats won, not necessarily the percentage of the total vote. A party can win many seats with slim margins and lose others by wide margins, affecting their overall vote share without necessarily reflecting a broader electoral shift.

For example, the BJP’s drop in the number of seats where they had more than 50% vote share – from 224 seats in 2019 to 156 in 2024, as noted by The Indian Express – indicates a decline in solid majorities, even though their overall vote share decreased only slightly, from 37.36% to 36.56%. This suggests a reduced intensity of support, which is crucial in FPTP but not captured by overall vote share alone.

Second, the impact of where votes are cast is significant. For instance, the BJP maintained a strong performance in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, winning a high percentage of seats with more than 50% of the vote. However, they suffered notable declines in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra—states that contributed significantly to their majority in 2019. This geographic variability means that national vote share numbers might not accurately reflect local political shifts and sentiments.

Third, a party can have a high national vote share if it accumulates huge margins in specific areas while performing poorly across others. This is evident in the BJP’s performance, where despite maintaining high vote shares in a few states, they lost significant ground in key battleground states, which disproportionately influenced their overall seat tally.

Fourth, the data shows that while the BJP’s vote share slightly decreased, the opposition Congress party’s increased, from 19.49% in 2019 to 21.19% in 2024. However, more crucially, the Congress party increased its seat count significantly – from 52 in 2019 to 99 in 2024 – which indicates that their vote distribution was more strategically effective in gaining seats even with a smaller increase in vote share compared to the BJP’s loss in seats.

Fifth, the detailed seat retention and loss analysis for the BJP, where they lost a significant number of previously strong seats to the Congress party and other parties, also illustrates that marginal changes in vote share can result in substantial changes in seat count due to the localised nature of electoral contests in an FPTP system.

And, sixth, the performance of allied parties within a coalition, like the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition INDIA coalition, further complicates the interpretation of a single party’s vote share. These allies can influence the overall electoral outcome through their performance, which isn’t reflected in the vote share of the leading party alone.

In 2019, the NDA’s combined vote share was 45%, which decreased to 42.5% in 2024. The combined vote share of the INDIA alliance in 2024 is only 2% lower, at 40.6%, compared to that of the NDA. It is clear to everyone that Rahul Gandhi, a leader of the Congress party, represented not only his own party but also the INDIA alliance, much like Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was the figurehead for not only the BJP but also the NDA. Thus, the vote shares of the two alliances must be included in any analysis concerning the popularity of the two major parties.

Hence, while vote share provides a snapshot of a party’s performance, it doesn’t account for the nuances of seat distribution, geographic influence and the dynamics of coalition politics, all of which are critical under the FPTP electoral system.

However, a party’s vote share can still be a significant indicator if the party claims its ideology is endorsed by the majority of the country’s populace because it secured a majority in an election. In such cases, it could be argued that the majority, in fact, does not support its ideology. This was true not only in 2014 but also in 2019 and 2024.