The State’s Ethnic Violence Enters Its 22nd Month

Commentary, By Vishal Arora
February 6, 2025

What does India have in common with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Nigeria, South Sudan and Ethiopia? Like these four African countries, India has been experiencing armed conflict between two ethnic groups in Manipur for over 21 months. However, unlike these nations, India possesses a significant capacity to control armed unrest, an area in which it can be considered “privileged.”

In Manipur, violence involving the majority Meitei community and the minority Kuki-Zo tribes entered its 22nd month on February 3, 2025. Erupting on May 3, 2023, the violence has killed at least 250 people—by a highly conservative estimate—destroyed thousands of homes and displaced tens of thousands. There appears to be no sign of the violence ending.

While Manipur might seem like just another conflict on the global stage, its unique context sets it apart. Prolonged armed conflicts involving insurgency or rebellion against governments are ongoing worldwide, including in Asia. However, conflicts that have persisted for over 21 months, where ethnic communities fight each other with the government primarily acting to curb this violence, are rare and found mostly in a few African countries and in Manipur, India.

Why Unsettling?

The conflict in Manipur, while not as intense as in the DRC’s Ituri and Kivu regions—where clashes between Hema and Lendu communities, M23 rebels and Mai-Mai militias have led to thousands of deaths and displacements—still poses significant concerns. It may be less violent than Nigeria’s Middle Belt, where ongoing ethnic and religious tensions between Fulani herders and mostly Christian farming communities prevail. It might also be less complex than South Sudan, where ethnic conflicts, especially between the Dinka and Nuer, continue despite peace agreements. It may also seem more “peaceful” compared to conflicts among Oromo, Amhara and Tigrayan communities in Ethiopia. However, the very existence of such a conflict in India remains deeply unsettling.

These African countries face challenges like weak central governments, frequent coups and ongoing armed rebellions, along with ethnic conflicts involving established warlords, large-scale insurgencies or foreign-backed militias. They also struggle with extreme poverty, underdeveloped infrastructure, and financial constraints that limit effective responses to violence.

In contrast, India benefits from a stable democracy, a functional legal system and stronger state institutions, which enable more effective conflict management. Further, India has a professional, well-equipped military and law enforcement that enforce state control despite potential inefficiencies and political bias at times. With a larger, diversified economy, India can mobilise resources effectively to manage internal conflicts. Located in the strategically significant Indo-Pacific region, India also faces greater international scrutiny and diplomatic pressures than African nations.

Ongoing Aftermath

Against this backdrop, the suffering of the people of Manipur can be described as both preventable and deeply tragic.

Manipur is home to three main ethnic communities: the majority Meitei people, who reside in the Imphal Valley, and the Kuki-Zo and Naga tribes, who live in the surrounding hills. All three communities have been suffering economically and have faced challenges in receiving the governance they need and deserve.

This fear of violence, daylight robbery and increasing extortion by extremist and insurgent groups in the valley has hindered economic activities for the Meitei people.

In the fiscal year 2024, rural areas of Manipur, where over 70% of the population resides, experienced significant inflationary pressures. In July 2024, retail inflation in these areas surged to 10%, as noted by the Frontline magazine. Earlier in 2023, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rates were recorded at 12.32% in May, 12.98% in June and 12.06% in July, marking some of the highest inflation rates in India during that period.

The GST collections in FY24 contracted by 24%, indicating a significant impact on the business community within the state. Further, the number of tourists visiting the state dropped from 161,420 (1.6 lakh) in the fiscal year 2022-23 to 37,000 the following year. Imagine the reduction in revenue for taxi drivers, hotels, tour operators and restaurants.

In the hills, the Kuki-Zo Christian community is experiencing a severe humanitarian crisis impacting both their economic stability and healthcare access.

Churachandpur district, home to the majority of Kuki-Zo people, has remained cut off from the state’s crucial regions since the onset of the violence.

Despite its proximity to Imphal, the capital of Manipur—situated just about 60 kilometres away and connected by well-maintained roads—the Kuki-Zo community now depends on Aizawl, the capital of the neighbouring state of Mizoram, over 330 kilometres away through hilly terrain, Aizawl has become their nearest accessible city for essential goods, including fuel and medicine.

However, Mizoram, a mountainous state lacking a manufacturing sector, also depends on Assam and other nearby states for its supplies, which are more than 500 kilometres away. This extended supply chain has led to unprecedented levels of inflation in the area.

Given that Imphal is a significant centre for jobs and education, employees and students in Churachandpur and other Kuki-Zo areas, such as Kangpokpi, are unable to access education and employment opportunities.

Further, in Churachandpur, home to about 20,000 individuals displaced by the violence, over 90 people have died, primarily due to a lack of medicines and specialised medical care.

Although not directly involved in the conflict between the Meiteis and the Kuki-Zos, the Naga people are also suffering. Due to cases of mistaken identity leading to attacks, they are cautious and vigilant when moving around within the state. The significantly reduced economic activity impacts them almost equally.

While the central government has deployed its forces and the army under a Unified Command to coordinate security measures in the state, it is nowhere near achieving control of the volatile situation in Manipur, which would demonstrate the strength of India’s democracy, legal system and state institutions—elements notably absent in African countries grappling with similar ethnic conflicts.